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United PDX vs Project 51O — USL League Two 2018

United PDX
United PDX
AET
4 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Project 51O
Project 51Oadvanced
7/21/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsInterbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

United PDX50%
×Draw22%
Project 51O28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United PDX
2.04
Project 51O
1.48

United PDX creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 35 away

creates per match

United PDX
2.08
Project 51O
1.80

allows per match

United PDX
1.15
Project 51O
2.00

finishing

United PDX+0.00on par
Project 51O+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United PDX ↓

Project 51O →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

United PDX or draw
72%
United PDX or Project 51O
78%
Draw or Project 51O
50%

Winning margin

United PDX wins by 2+
29%
Project 51O wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

United PDX 1+ goals
87%
United PDX 2+ goals
60%
United PDX 3+ goals
33%
Project 51O 1+ goals
77%
Project 51O 2+ goals
43%
Project 51O 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

United PDX (draw refunded)
64%
Project 51O (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United PDX at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Project 51O away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United PDX attack 2.08 + Project 51O defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Project 51O attack 1.80 + United PDX defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

United PDX scores more
50%
level
22%
Project 51O scores more
28%

United PDX at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: United PDX 4–5 Project 51O

Project 51O beat United PDX 5-4 in USL League Two on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Interbay Stadium in Seattle, Washington.