United PDX 1–0 Midlakes United: Result & Stats

United PDX

FT

1 – 0

Midlakes United

6/9/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 8Lincoln High School Track & Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

United PDX58%

×Draw21%

Midlakes United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United PDXExpected goals in this matchMidlakes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.22

United PDX

2.11

Midlakes United

1.22

United PDX creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

2.08

creates per match

1.29

1.15

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

United PDX

2.08

Midlakes United

1.29

allows per match

United PDX

1.15

Midlakes United

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United PDX+0.00on par

Midlakes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United PDX ↓

Midlakes United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

United PDX or draw

78%

United PDX or Midlakes United

79%

Draw or Midlakes United

42%

Winning margin

United PDX wins by 2+

35%

Midlakes United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

United PDX 1+ goals

88%

United PDX 2+ goals

62%

United PDX 3+ goals

35%

Midlakes United 1+ goals

70%

Midlakes United 2+ goals

34%

Midlakes United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

United PDX (draw refunded)

73%

Midlakes United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United PDX at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Midlakes United away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United PDX attack 2.08 + Midlakes United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.11

Midlakes United attack 1.29 + United PDX defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

United PDX scores more

58%

level

21%

Midlakes United scores more

22%

United PDX at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff