United of Manchester W 2–3 Hull City W

United of Manchester W

2 – 3

Hull City W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundBroadhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

United of Manchester W12%

×Draw15%

Hull City W73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United of Manchester WExpected goals in this matchHull City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.88

United of Manchester W

1.13

Hull City W

2.88

Hull City W creates 155% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

3.25

2.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

United of Manchester W

1.00

Hull City W

3.25

allows per match

United of Manchester W

2.50

Hull City W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United of Manchester W+0.00on par

Hull City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United of Manchester W ↓

Hull City W →

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

United of Manchester W or draw

27%

United of Manchester W or Hull City W

85%

Draw or Hull City W

88%

Winning margin

United of Manchester W wins by 2+

Hull City W wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

United of Manchester W 1+ goals

68%

United of Manchester W 2+ goals

31%

United of Manchester W 3+ goals

11%

Hull City W 1+ goals

94%

Hull City W 2+ goals

78%

Hull City W 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

United of Manchester W (draw refunded)

15%

Hull City W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

United of Manchester W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Hull City W away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

United of Manchester W attack 1.00 + Hull City W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hull City W attack 3.25 + United of Manchester W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

United of Manchester W scores more

12%

level

15%

Hull City W scores more

73%

Hull City W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hull City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff