United of Manchester W 0–1 Brighouse Town W

United of Manchester W

0 – 1

Brighouse Town W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundBroadhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

United of Manchester W5%

×Draw13%

Brighouse Town W82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United of Manchester WExpected goals in this matchBrighouse Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

2.58

United of Manchester W

0.50

Brighouse Town W

2.58

Brighouse Town W creates 416% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

2.50

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

United of Manchester W

1.00

Brighouse Town W

2.67

allows per match

United of Manchester W

2.50

Brighouse Town W

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United of Manchester W+0.00on par

Brighouse Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United of Manchester W ↓

Brighouse Town W →

0–05%

0–112%

0–216%

0–313%

0–49%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

United of Manchester W or draw

18%

United of Manchester W or Brighouse Town W

87%

Draw or Brighouse Town W

95%

Winning margin

United of Manchester W wins by 2+

Brighouse Town W wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

United of Manchester W 1+ goals

39%

United of Manchester W 2+ goals

United of Manchester W 3+ goals

Brighouse Town W 1+ goals

92%

Brighouse Town W 2+ goals

72%

Brighouse Town W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

United of Manchester W (draw refunded)

Brighouse Town W (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

United of Manchester W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Brighouse Town W away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

United of Manchester W attack 1.00 + Brighouse Town W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Brighouse Town W attack 2.67 + United of Manchester W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

United of Manchester W scores more

level

13%

Brighouse Town W scores more

82%

Brighouse Town W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Brighouse Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff