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United of Manchester vs Salford City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

United of Manchester
United of Manchester
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Salford City
Salford City
M. Grivosti 57'
J. Bird 90'
R. Graydon 61'
R. Longelo-Mbule 52'
D. Udoh 33'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

United of Manchester38%
×Draw22%
Salford City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United of Manchester
1.86
Salford City
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

United of Manchester
1.40
Salford City
2.00

allows per match

United of Manchester
1.80
Salford City
2.33

finishing

United of Manchester+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United of Manchester ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

United of Manchester or draw
60%
United of Manchester or Salford City
78%
Draw or Salford City
62%

Winning margin

United of Manchester wins by 2+
20%
Salford City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

United of Manchester 1+ goals
84%
United of Manchester 2+ goals
55%
United of Manchester 3+ goals
28%
Salford City 1+ goals
85%
Salford City 2+ goals
56%
Salford City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

United of Manchester (draw refunded)
49%
Salford City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United of Manchester at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Salford City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United of Manchester attack 1.40 + Salford City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Salford City attack 2.00 + United of Manchester defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

United of Manchester scores more
38%
level
22%
Salford City scores more
40%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
D. Udoh
52'
R. Longelo-Mbule
57'
M. Grivosti
61'
R. Graydon
90'
J. Bird

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: United of Manchester vs Salford City

Salford City beat United of Manchester 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: D. Udoh (33'), R. Longelo-Mbule (52'), M. Grivosti (57'), R. Graydon (61'), J. Bird (90').