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United Nordic vs Sylvia — Ettan - Norra 2019

United Nordic
United Nordic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sylvia
Sylvia
11/12/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 30Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

United Nordic64%
×Draw20%
Sylvia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United Nordic
2.21
Sylvia
1.02

United Nordic creates 117% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

United Nordic
2.31
Sylvia
1.09

allows per match

United Nordic
0.96
Sylvia
2.11

finishing

United Nordic+0.00on par
Sylvia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Nordic ↓

Sylvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

United Nordic or draw
84%
United Nordic or Sylvia
80%
Draw or Sylvia
36%

Winning margin

United Nordic wins by 2+
41%
Sylvia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

United Nordic 1+ goals
89%
United Nordic 2+ goals
65%
United Nordic 3+ goals
38%
Sylvia 1+ goals
64%
Sylvia 2+ goals
27%
Sylvia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

United Nordic (draw refunded)
80%
Sylvia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Nordic at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches

Sylvia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Nordic attack 2.31 + Sylvia defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sylvia attack 1.09 + United Nordic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

United Nordic scores more
64%
level
20%
Sylvia scores more
16%

United Nordic at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: United Nordic 2–0 Sylvia

United Nordic beat Sylvia 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.