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United Nordic vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2026

United Nordic
United Nordic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
11/23/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Relegation RoundSödertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

United Nordic43%
×Draw24%
Orgryte IS34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United Nordic
1.67
Orgryte IS
1.46

United Nordic creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 122 away

creates per match

United Nordic
1.88
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

United Nordic
1.63
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

United Nordic+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Nordic ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

United Nordic or draw
66%
United Nordic or Orgryte IS
76%
Draw or Orgryte IS
57%

Winning margin

United Nordic wins by 2+
22%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

United Nordic 1+ goals
81%
United Nordic 2+ goals
50%
United Nordic 3+ goals
23%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
77%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
43%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

United Nordic (draw refunded)
56%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Nordic at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Nordic attack 1.88 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + United Nordic defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

United Nordic scores more
43%
level
24%
Orgryte IS scores more
34%

United Nordic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: United Nordic 0–1 Orgryte IS

Orgryte IS beat United Nordic 1-0 in Superettan on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.