United Arab Emirates 2–1 Oman: Result & Stats

United Arab Emirates

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oman

Caio Lucas 83'

M. Meloni 76'

K. Kouadio 12' (OG)

10/11/2025

League #30 · Round 4 - 2Thani bin Jassim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

United Arab Emirates57%

×Draw26%

Oman17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United Arab EmiratesExpected goals in this matchOman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.71

United Arab Emirates

1.55

Oman

0.71

United Arab Emirates creates 118% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

1.85

creates per match

0.50

0.92

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

United Arab Emirates

1.85

Oman

0.50

allows per match

United Arab Emirates

0.92

Oman

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Oman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Arab Emirates ↓

Oman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

United Arab Emirates or draw

83%

United Arab Emirates or Oman

74%

Draw or Oman

43%

Winning margin

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

31%

Oman wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

79%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

46%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

20%

Oman 1+ goals

51%

Oman 2+ goals

16%

Oman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

77%

Oman (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Arab Emirates at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Oman away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Arab Emirates attack 1.85 + Oman defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Oman attack 0.50 + United Arab Emirates defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

United Arab Emirates scores more

57%

level

26%

Oman scores more

17%

United Arab Emirates at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "United Arab Emirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Meloni

United Arab Emirates · D

7.5

Match Events

12'

K. KouadioOwn goal

38'

A. Saleh← Y. Al Ghassani

46'

H. Suhail← A. Ramadan

46'

Y. Nader← F. Lima

46'

Caio Canedo← M. Hassan

59'

Issam Al-Subhi

62'

M. Al Ghafri← I. Al Sabhi

72'

Ali SalehPenalty cancelled

76'

M. Meloni↳ A. Saleh

77'

A. Fawaz← A. Al Alawi

77'

M. Mabrook← A. Al Harthi

83'

Caio Lucas↳ Caio Canedo

85'

Z. Al Aghbari← A. Al Khamisi

85'

M. Al Ghassani← Dahman

87'

Ali Saleh

88'

A. Zouhir← N. Gimenez

90+9'

Harib Al-Saadi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnitedOman

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots9

6Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

3Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

533Total Passes315

447Accurate Passes237

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0