United Arab Emirates 2–1 Kazakhstan: Result & Stats

United Arab Emirates

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kazakhstan

Fábio Lima 71', 13'

A. Aymbetov 62'

11/19/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Al Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

United Arab Emirates57%

×Draw23%

Kazakhstan20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United Arab EmiratesExpected goals in this matchKazakhstan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.98

United Arab Emirates

1.80

Kazakhstan

0.98

United Arab Emirates creates 84% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

0.92

1.04

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

United Arab Emirates

1.46

Kazakhstan

0.92

allows per match

United Arab Emirates

1.04

Kazakhstan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Arab Emirates ↓

Kazakhstan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

United Arab Emirates or draw

80%

United Arab Emirates or Kazakhstan

77%

Draw or Kazakhstan

43%

Winning margin

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

32%

Kazakhstan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

83%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

54%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

27%

Kazakhstan 1+ goals

62%

Kazakhstan 2+ goals

26%

Kazakhstan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

74%

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Arab Emirates at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Kazakhstan away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Arab Emirates attack 1.46 + Kazakhstan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kazakhstan attack 0.92 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

United Arab Emirates scores more

57%

level

23%

Kazakhstan scores more

20%

United Arab Emirates at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "United Arab Emirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Fábio Lima

46'

Al Hassan Saleh← Harib Abdalla Suhail

46'

Khalid Al Hashemi← Shaheen Abdulrahman

50'

Nuraly Alip

62'

A. Aymbetov

63'

M. Gabyshev← B. Kairov

67'

Timur Dosmagambetov

71'

Fábio Lima

72'

Tahnoon Al Zaabi← Abdalla Ramadan

72'

A. Zhaksylykov← A. Aymbetov

72'

M. Samorodov← E. Astanov

75'

Askhat Tagybergen

76'

D. Shomko← T. Dosmagambetov

76'

T. Erlanov← S. Maliy

76'

B. Islamkhan← A. Tagybergen

79'

Aleksandr Marochkin

83'

Yahya Al Ghassani← Caio Canedo

90+2'

Abdul Sallam Mohameed← Khalifa Al Hammadi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UnitedKazakhstan

Overview

62%Possession38%

9Total Shots3

3Corners2

12Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots3

5On Target1

3Off Target2

1Blocked0

Passing

62%Possession38%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls20

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3