United Arab Emirates vs Australia — Asian Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
United Arab Emirates12%
Australia66%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Australia creates 190% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
United Arab Emirates ↓
Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
United Arab Emirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches
Australia away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
United Arab Emirates attack 1.00 + Australia defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63
Australia attack 2.50 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Australia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
United Arab Emirates substitutes
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Qatar
Jordan
IranAustralia
Japan
Uzbekistan
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
BahrainUnited Arab Emirates
Thailand
Syria
Tajikistan
Palestine
Indonesia
Oman
China
Kyrgyzstan
Lebanon
Malaysia
Vietnam
Hong Kong
IndiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
United Arab Emirates host Australia on Friday, 25 January 2019 at 16:00. The match is part of the Asian Cup 2019/2020 season.
Asian Cup: United Arab Emirates 1–0 Australia
United Arab Emirates beat Australia 1-0 in Asian Cup on January 25, 2019.
Goals: Ali Mabkhout (68').
Australia controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 2.
The match was played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain.