Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

United Arab Emirates vs Armenia — Friendlies 2026

United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates
CANC
15:25
Armenia
Armenia
3/26/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

United Arab Emirates64%
×Draw19%
Armenia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United Arab Emirates
2.28
Armenia
1.07

United Arab Emirates creates 113% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

United Arab Emirates
1.46
Armenia
1.10

allows per match

United Arab Emirates
1.04
Armenia
3.10

finishing

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Arab Emirates ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

United Arab Emirates or draw
83%
United Arab Emirates or Armenia
81%
Draw or Armenia
36%

Winning margin

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+
41%
Armenia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals
90%
United Arab Emirates 2+ goals
66%
United Arab Emirates 3+ goals
39%
Armenia 1+ goals
66%
Armenia 2+ goals
29%
Armenia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)
79%
Armenia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Arab Emirates at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Arab Emirates attack 1.46 + Armenia defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.28

Armenia attack 1.10 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

United Arab Emirates scores more
64%
level
19%
Armenia scores more
17%

United Arab Emirates at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "United Arab Emirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: United Arab Emirates host Armenia

March 26, 2026: United Arab Emirates take on Armenia in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.