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Unistars vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Unistars
Unistars
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
River Plate
River Plate
5/10/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Unistars16%
×Draw16%
River Plate69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unistars
1.42
River Plate
3.02

River Plate creates 113% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

creates per match

Unistars
0.50
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Unistars
4.10
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Unistars+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unistars ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Unistars or draw
31%
Unistars or River Plate
84%
Draw or River Plate
84%

Winning margin

Unistars wins by 2+
6%
River Plate wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Unistars 1+ goals
76%
Unistars 2+ goals
41%
Unistars 3+ goals
17%
River Plate 1+ goals
95%
River Plate 2+ goals
80%
River Plate 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Unistars (draw refunded)
19%
River Plate (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unistars at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unistars attack 0.50 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

River Plate attack 1.95 + Unistars defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Unistars scores more
16%
level
16%
River Plate scores more
69%

River Plate at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Unistars 0–5 River Plate

River Plate beat Unistars 5-0 in Division di Honor on May 10, 2026.