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Unistars vs La Fama — Division di Honor 2019

Unistars
Unistars
FT
0 – 4
La Fama
La Fama
11/24/2024Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 7Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Unistars9%
×Draw13%
La Fama78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unistars
0.98
La Fama
3.04

La Fama creates 210% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 51 away

creates per match

Unistars
0.50
La Fama
1.98

allows per match

Unistars
4.10
La Fama
1.47

finishing

Unistars+0.00on par
La Fama+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unistars ↓

La Fama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–39%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Unistars or draw
22%
Unistars or La Fama
87%
Draw or La Fama
91%

Winning margin

Unistars wins by 2+
3%
La Fama wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Unistars 1+ goals
62%
Unistars 2+ goals
26%
Unistars 3+ goals
8%
La Fama 1+ goals
95%
La Fama 2+ goals
80%
La Fama 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Unistars (draw refunded)
11%
La Fama (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unistars at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

La Fama away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unistars attack 0.50 + La Fama defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.98

La Fama attack 1.98 + Unistars defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Unistars scores more
9%
level
13%
La Fama scores more
78%

La Fama at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "La Fama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Unistars 0–4 La Fama

La Fama beat Unistars 4-0 in Division di Honor on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.