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Unistars vs Britannia — Division di Honor 2019

Unistars
Unistars
FT
0 – 8
Britannia
Britannia
11/3/2024Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 5Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Unistars7%
×Draw12%
Britannia81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unistars
0.89
Britannia
3.16

Britannia creates 255% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 67 away

creates per match

Unistars
0.50
Britannia
2.22

allows per match

Unistars
4.10
Britannia
1.27

finishing

Unistars+0.00on par
Britannia+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unistars ↓

Britannia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Unistars or draw
19%
Unistars or Britannia
88%
Draw or Britannia
93%

Winning margin

Unistars wins by 2+
2%
Britannia wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Unistars 1+ goals
59%
Unistars 2+ goals
22%
Unistars 3+ goals
6%
Britannia 1+ goals
96%
Britannia 2+ goals
82%
Britannia 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Unistars (draw refunded)
8%
Britannia (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unistars at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

Britannia away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unistars attack 0.50 + Britannia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.89

Britannia attack 2.22 + Unistars defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 3.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Unistars scores more
7%
level
12%
Britannia scores more
81%

Britannia at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unistars vs Britannia

Britannia beat Unistars 8-0 in Division di Honor on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.