Unisport Bafang 1–1 Young Sport Academy

Unisport Bafang

FT

1 – 1

Young Sport Academy

3/31/2019

Elite One · Round 11Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Unisport Bafang44%

×Draw29%

Young Sport Academy27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unisport BafangExpected goals in this matchYoung Sport Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.91

Unisport Bafang

1.23

Young Sport Academy

0.91

Unisport Bafang creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 79 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

0.88

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Unisport Bafang

1.15

Young Sport Academy

0.94

allows per match

Unisport Bafang

0.88

Young Sport Academy

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Young Sport Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw

73%

Unisport Bafang or Young Sport Academy

71%

Draw or Young Sport Academy

56%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

19%

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

71%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

35%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

13%

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

60%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

23%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

61%

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.15 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Unisport Bafang defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more

44%

level

29%

Young Sport Academy scores more

27%

Unisport Bafang at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff