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Unisport Bafang vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
3 – 3
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
7/9/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Unisport Bafang60%
×Draw23%
Leopard de Douala17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.79
Leopard de Douala
0.84

Unisport Bafang creates 113% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 28 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
83%
Unisport Bafang or Leopard de Douala
77%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
40%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
34%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
83%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
53%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
26%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
57%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
21%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
78%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
60%
level
23%
Leopard de Douala scores more
17%

Unisport Bafang at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Unisport Bafang 3–3 Leopard de Douala

Unisport Bafang and Leopard de Douala drew 3-3 in Elite Two on July 9, 2021.