Leopard de Douala 1–3 Unisport Bafang

Leopard de Douala

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Unisport Bafang

3/28/2024

Elite Two · Relegation Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Leopard de Douala33%

×Draw29%

Unisport Bafang38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchUnisport Bafang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.17

Leopard de Douala

1.08

Unisport Bafang

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 38 away

1.10

creates per match

1.05

1.28

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

Unisport Bafang

1.05

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

Unisport Bafang

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Unisport Bafang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

62%

Leopard de Douala or Unisport Bafang

71%

Draw or Unisport Bafang

67%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

13%

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

66%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

29%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

10%

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

69%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

33%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

47%

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

33%

level

29%

Unisport Bafang scores more

38%

Unisport Bafang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff