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Unisport Bafang vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
1/6/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Unisport Bafang58%
×Draw22%
Foncha ST20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.95
Foncha ST
1.04

Unisport Bafang creates 88% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
80%
Unisport Bafang or Foncha ST
78%
Draw or Foncha ST
42%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
35%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
86%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
58%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
31%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
65%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
28%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
75%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.95

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
58%
level
22%
Foncha ST scores more
20%

Unisport Bafang at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Unisport Bafang 3–0 Foncha ST

Unisport Bafang beat Foncha ST 3-0 in Elite Two on January 6, 2024.