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Unisport Bafang vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
PST
00:00
FAP
FAP
10/11/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Unisport Bafang47%
×Draw25%
FAP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.60
FAP
1.19

Unisport Bafang creates 34% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
FAP
1.44

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
72%
Unisport Bafang or FAP
75%
Draw or FAP
53%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
24%
FAP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
80%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
47%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
22%
FAP 1+ goals
70%
FAP 2+ goals
33%
FAP 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
62%
FAP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

FAP attack 1.32 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
47%
level
25%
FAP scores more
28%

Unisport Bafang at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unisport Bafang vs FAP — Match Preview

Unisport Bafang face FAP on October 11, 2023 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.