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FAP vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
CANC
14:00
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
4/12/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FAP42%
×Draw30%
Unisport Bafang28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.19
Unisport Bafang
0.92

FAP creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 38 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FAP or draw
72%
FAP or Unisport Bafang
70%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
58%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
18%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
70%
FAP 2+ goals
33%
FAP 3+ goals
12%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
60%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
23%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
60%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FAP scores more
42%
level
30%
Unisport Bafang scores more
28%

FAP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FAP face Unisport Bafang (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with FAP hosting Unisport Bafang. Match starts April 12, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.