Unisport Bafang 2–1 Dragon de Yaoundé

Unisport Bafang

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dragon de Yaoundé

3/16/2025

Elite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Unisport Bafang65%

×Draw19%

Dragon de Yaoundé16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unisport BafangExpected goals in this matchDragon de Yaoundé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.99

Unisport Bafang

2.20

Dragon de Yaoundé

0.99

Unisport Bafang creates 122% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 16 away

1.77

creates per match

0.94

1.05

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Unisport Bafang

1.77

Dragon de Yaoundé

0.94

allows per match

Unisport Bafang

1.05

Dragon de Yaoundé

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Dragon de Yaoundé+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Dragon de Yaoundé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw

84%

Unisport Bafang or Dragon de Yaoundé

81%

Draw or Dragon de Yaoundé

35%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

41%

Dragon de Yaoundé wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

89%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

64%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

37%

Dragon de Yaoundé 1+ goals

63%

Dragon de Yaoundé 2+ goals

26%

Dragon de Yaoundé 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

80%

Dragon de Yaoundé (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Dragon de Yaoundé away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Dragon de Yaoundé defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.20

Dragon de Yaoundé attack 0.94 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more

65%

level

19%

Dragon de Yaoundé scores more

16%

Unisport Bafang at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff