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Unisport Bafang vs Avion Academy — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
1/5/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Unisport Bafang47%
×Draw26%
Avion Academy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.52
Avion Academy
1.08

Unisport Bafang creates 41% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
Avion Academy
1.11

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
Avion Academy
1.26

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
73%
Unisport Bafang or Avion Academy
74%
Draw or Avion Academy
53%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
24%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
78%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
45%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
20%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
66%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
29%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
64%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
47%
level
26%
Avion Academy scores more
27%

Unisport Bafang at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Unisport Bafang 3–1 Avion Academy

Unisport Bafang beat Avion Academy 3-1 in Elite Two on January 5, 2025.