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Unisport Bafang vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
1/18/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Unisport Bafang38%
×Draw25%
APEJES Academy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.44
APEJES Academy
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
63%
Unisport Bafang or APEJES Academy
75%
Draw or APEJES Academy
62%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
18%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
76%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
42%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
18%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
76%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
42%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
50%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.44

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
38%
level
25%
APEJES Academy scores more
37%

Unisport Bafang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unisport Bafang vs APEJES Academy

Unisport Bafang and APEJES Academy drew 1-1 in Elite Two on January 18, 2025.