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Unisport Bafang vs Aigle Royal — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
1 – 2
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
8/31/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unisport Bafang45%
×Draw26%
Aigle Royal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.50
Aigle Royal
1.17

Unisport Bafang creates 28% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
Aigle Royal
1.29

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
Aigle Royal
1.24

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
70%
Unisport Bafang or Aigle Royal
74%
Draw or Aigle Royal
55%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
22%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
78%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
44%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
19%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
69%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
33%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
60%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
45%
level
26%
Aigle Royal scores more
30%

Unisport Bafang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unisport Bafang vs Aigle Royal

Aigle Royal beat Unisport Bafang 2-1 in Elite Two on August 31, 2021.