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Aigle Royal vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
CANC
00:00
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
5/10/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal43%
×Draw28%
Unisport Bafang28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.27
Unisport Bafang
0.97

Aigle Royal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 38 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.50
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.89
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
72%
Aigle Royal or Unisport Bafang
72%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
57%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
19%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
72%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
36%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
14%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
62%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
25%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
60%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
43%
level
28%
Unisport Bafang scores more
28%

Aigle Royal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aigle Royal face Unisport Bafang (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Aigle Royal hosting Unisport Bafang. Match starts May 10, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.