Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unirea Ungheni vs Metalul Buzău — Liga II 2018

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metalul Buzău
Metalul Buzău
11/9/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 13Stadionul Unirea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unirea Ungheni36%
×Draw28%
Metalul Buzău36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.17
Metalul Buzău
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.44

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
0.92
Metalul Buzău
1.33

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
Metalul Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

Metalul Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
64%
Unirea Ungheni or Metalul Buzău
72%
Draw or Metalul Buzău
64%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
15%
Metalul Buzău wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
33%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
11%
Metalul Buzău 1+ goals
69%
Metalul Buzău 2+ goals
33%
Metalul Buzău 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
50%
Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Metalul Buzău away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.00 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Metalul Buzău attack 1.44 + Unirea Ungheni defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
36%
level
28%
Metalul Buzău scores more
36%

Unirea Ungheni at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Unirea Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Ungheni 0–0 Metalul Buzău

Unirea Ungheni and Metalul Buzău drew 0-0 in Liga II on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Unirea in Ungheni.