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Unirea Ungheni vs Gloria Bistriţa — Liga III - Play-offs 2022

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
FT
2 – 1
Gloria Bistriţa
Gloria Bistriţa
6/5/2024Liga III - Play-offsLiga III - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsStadionul Unirea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Unirea Ungheni51%
×Draw27%
Gloria Bistriţa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.42
Gloria Bistriţa
0.83

Unirea Ungheni creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.50
Gloria Bistriţa
0.67

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
Gloria Bistriţa
1.33

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
Gloria Bistriţa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

Gloria Bistriţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
78%
Unirea Ungheni or Gloria Bistriţa
73%
Draw or Gloria Bistriţa
49%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
25%
Gloria Bistriţa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
76%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
41%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
17%
Gloria Bistriţa 1+ goals
56%
Gloria Bistriţa 2+ goals
20%
Gloria Bistriţa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
70%
Gloria Bistriţa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Gloria Bistriţa away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.50 + Gloria Bistriţa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gloria Bistriţa attack 0.67 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
51%
level
27%
Gloria Bistriţa scores more
22%

Unirea Ungheni at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unirea Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Play-offs: Unirea Ungheni 2–1 Gloria Bistriţa

Unirea Ungheni beat Gloria Bistriţa 2-1 in Liga III - Play-offs on June 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Unirea in Ungheni.