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Unirea Ungheni vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
3/1/2025Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Unirea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unirea Ungheni37%
×Draw30%
Csikszereda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.08
Csikszereda
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
0.92
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
67%
Unirea Ungheni or Csikszereda
70%
Draw or Csikszereda
63%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
15%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
66%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
29%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
10%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
64%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
27%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
52%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.00 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Unirea Ungheni defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
37%
level
30%
Csikszereda scores more
33%

Unirea Ungheni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unirea Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Ungheni 1–0 Csikszereda

Unirea Ungheni beat Csikszereda 1-0 in Liga II on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Unirea in Ungheni.