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Unirea Ungheni vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
8/24/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 4Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unirea Ungheni33%
×Draw30%
Chindia Targoviste37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.02
Chindia Targoviste
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
0.92
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
63%
Unirea Ungheni or Chindia Targoviste
70%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
67%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
13%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
64%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
27%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
8%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
66%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
29%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
48%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.00 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Unirea Ungheni defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
33%
level
30%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
37%

Chindia Targoviste at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Ungheni 0–1 Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat Unirea Ungheni 1-0 in Liga II on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Reghin.