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Unirea Slobozia vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
10/8/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Unirea Slobozia66%
×Draw19%
Unirea Constanța14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
2.18
Unirea Constanța
0.90

Unirea Slobozia creates 142% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 25 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.11
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
0.71
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
86%
Unirea Slobozia or Unirea Constanța
81%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
34%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
43%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
89%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
64%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
37%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
59%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
23%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
82%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.18

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
66%
level
19%
Unirea Constanța scores more
14%

Unirea Slobozia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Slobozia vs Unirea Constanța

Unirea Slobozia beat Unirea Constanța 3-0 in Liga II on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slobozia.