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Unirea Slobozia vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga I 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
9/2/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 8Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Unirea Slobozia50%
×Draw24%
SCM Gloria Buzău25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.65
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.10

Unirea Slobozia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 21 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.05
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.86

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.34
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.24

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
75%
Unirea Slobozia or SCM Gloria Buzău
76%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
50%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
27%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
81%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
49%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
23%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
67%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
30%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
66%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.05 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
50%
level
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
25%

Unirea Slobozia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Slobozia vs SCM Gloria Buzău

Unirea Slobozia beat SCM Gloria Buzău 2-1 in Liga I on September 2, 2024.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.