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Unirea Slobozia vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
3/12/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unirea Slobozia47%
×Draw28%
Ripensia Timisoara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.30
Ripensia Timisoara
0.87

Unirea Slobozia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 70 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.11
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
0.71
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
75%
Unirea Slobozia or Ripensia Timisoara
72%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
53%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
22%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
73%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
37%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
14%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
58%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
22%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
65%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
47%
level
28%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
25%

Unirea Slobozia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Slobozia 1–0 Ripensia Timisoara

Unirea Slobozia beat Ripensia Timisoara 1-0 in Liga II on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slobozia.