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Unirea Slobozia vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rapid
Rapid
3/2/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 29May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unirea Slobozia34%
×Draw27%
Rapid39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.16
Rapid
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 99 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.05
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.34
Rapid
1.26

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
61%
Unirea Slobozia or Rapid
73%
Draw or Rapid
66%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
14%
Rapid wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
32%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
11%
Rapid 1+ goals
72%
Rapid 2+ goals
36%
Rapid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
46%
Rapid (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.05 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rapid attack 1.21 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
34%
level
27%
Rapid scores more
39%

Rapid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Slobozia vs Rapid

Rapid beat Unirea Slobozia 2-1 in Liga I on March 2, 2026.

The match was played at May 1 Stadium in Slobozia.