Unirea Slobozia 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti

Unirea Slobozia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bucuresti

S. Perica 65'

10/3/2025

Liga I · Round 12May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Unirea Slobozia33%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bucuresti40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.28

Unirea Slobozia

1.13

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.28

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.07

creates per match

1.21

1.35

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.07

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.21

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.35

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.19

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.03on par

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.06on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

60%

Unirea Slobozia or Dinamo Bucuresti

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

67%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

13%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

68%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

31%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

11%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

45%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.07 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.21 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

33%

level

28%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

40%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

K. Boateng

Dinamo Bucuresti · D

7.6

Match Events

45'

Ionuț Coadă

46'

C. Kyriakou← G. Milanov

46'

I. Marginean← E. Gnahore

59'

C. Barbut← E. Florescu

60'

R. Espinosa← A. Said

60'

S. Perica← A. Pop

63'

Danny Armstrong

65'

S. Perica↳ I. Marginean

68'

A. Soro← D. Armstrong

70'

A. Dragu← C. Toma

70'

F. Purece← I. Coada

74'

Oleksandr Safronov

78'

Alexandru MusiGoal cancelled

80'

C. Mihai← C. Cirjan

81'

R. Deaconu← C. Afalna

90+3'

Cristi Bărbuț

90+6'

Devis Epassy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnireaDinamo

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots15

0.07Expected Goals (xG)1.15

7Corners9

22Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots15

0On Target6

2Off Target5

3Blocked4

3Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

214Total Passes205

100Accurate Passes86

47%Pass Accuracy42%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

22Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4