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Unirea Slobozia vs Comuna Recea — Liga II 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
5/22/2021Liga IILiga II · Relegation Play-offsStadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unirea Slobozia55%
×Draw25%
Comuna Recea19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.56
Comuna Recea
0.81

Unirea Slobozia creates 93% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 13 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.11
Comuna Recea
0.92

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
0.71
Comuna Recea
2.00

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
Comuna Recea+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Comuna Recea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
81%
Unirea Slobozia or Comuna Recea
75%
Draw or Comuna Recea
45%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
29%
Comuna Recea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
79%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
46%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
21%
Comuna Recea 1+ goals
56%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
19%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
74%
Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

Comuna Recea away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + Comuna Recea defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Comuna Recea attack 0.92 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
55%
level
25%
Comuna Recea scores more
19%

Unirea Slobozia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Slobozia vs Comuna Recea

Unirea Slobozia beat Comuna Recea 3-0 in Liga II on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slobozia.