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Unirea Slobozia vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ — Liga II 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
12/2/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Unirea Slobozia49%
×Draw27%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.45
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
0.92

Unirea Slobozia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.11
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.12

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
0.71
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.79

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
76%
Unirea Slobozia or Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
73%
Draw or Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
51%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
25%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
77%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
42%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
18%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1+ goals
60%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2+ goals
23%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
67%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ attack 1.12 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
49%
level
27%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ scores more
24%

Unirea Slobozia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Slobozia vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

Unirea Slobozia beat Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2-1 in Liga II on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slobozia.