Unirea Slobozia 2–2 Brașov Steagul Renaște

Unirea Slobozia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Brașov Steagul Renaște

3/12/2023

Liga II · Round 19Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unirea Slobozia32%

×Draw28%

Brașov Steagul Renaște40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchBrașov Steagul Renaște

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.23

Unirea Slobozia

1.08

Brașov Steagul Renaște

1.23

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 14% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.76

0.71

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.11

Brașov Steagul Renaște

1.76

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

0.71

Brașov Steagul Renaște

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Brașov Steagul Renaște →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

60%

Unirea Slobozia or Brașov Steagul Renaște

72%

Draw or Brașov Steagul Renaște

68%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

13%

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

66%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

29%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

10%

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals

71%

Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals

35%

Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

45%

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 1.76 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

32%

level

28%

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more

40%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff