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Unirea Slobozia vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
8/12/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unirea Slobozia46%
×Draw28%
ACS Sirineasa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.33
ACS Sirineasa
0.91

Unirea Slobozia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 84 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.11
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
0.71
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
74%
Unirea Slobozia or ACS Sirineasa
72%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
54%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
22%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
74%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
38%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
15%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
60%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
23%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
64%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
46%
level
28%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
26%

Unirea Slobozia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Slobozia 1–1 ACS Sirineasa

Unirea Slobozia and ACS Sirineasa drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slobozia.