Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unirea Dej vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
11/20/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Municipal Dej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Unirea Dej62%
×Draw20%
Unirea Constanța19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Dej
2.21
Unirea Constanța
1.13

Unirea Dej creates 96% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 25 away

creates per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Unirea Dej+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Dej ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Unirea Dej or draw
81%
Unirea Dej or Unirea Constanța
80%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
38%

Winning margin

Unirea Dej wins by 2+
39%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unirea Dej 1+ goals
89%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
65%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
38%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
68%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
31%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
77%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Dej at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 41 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Dej attack 1.17 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.21

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Unirea Dej defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Unirea Dej scores more
62%
level
20%
Unirea Constanța scores more
19%

Unirea Dej at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Dej vs Unirea Constanța

Unirea Dej beat Unirea Constanța 2-1 in Liga II on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Dej in Dej.