Unirea Constanța 0–3 Viitorul Şelimbăr

Unirea Constanța

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Viitorul Şelimbăr

3/12/2023

Liga II · Round 19Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța23%

×Draw24%

Viitorul Şelimbăr53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea ConstanțaExpected goals in this matchViitorul Şelimbăr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.69

Unirea Constanța

1.03

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.69

Viitorul Şelimbăr creates 64% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

0.83

creates per match

0.96

2.42

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Unirea Constanța

0.83

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.96

allows per match

Unirea Constanța

2.42

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw

47%

Unirea Constanța or Viitorul Şelimbăr

76%

Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr

77%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+

8%

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals

64%

Unirea Constanța 2+ goals

28%

Unirea Constanța 3+ goals

9%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

82%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

50%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)

30%

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more

23%

level

24%

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

53%

Viitorul Şelimbăr at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Viitorul Şelimbăr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff