Unirea Constanța 0–6 Politehnica Iasi

Unirea Constanța

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Politehnica Iasi

9/18/2021

Liga II · Round 7Stadionul Sparta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța22%

×Draw24%

Politehnica Iasi54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea ConstanțaExpected goals in this matchPolitehnica Iasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.75

Unirea Constanța

1.03

Politehnica Iasi

1.75

Politehnica Iasi creates 70% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 41 away

0.83

creates per match

1.07

2.42

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Unirea Constanța

0.83

Politehnica Iasi

1.07

allows per match

Unirea Constanța

2.42

Politehnica Iasi

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Politehnica Iasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw

46%

Unirea Constanța or Politehnica Iasi

76%

Draw or Politehnica Iasi

78%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+

8%

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals

64%

Unirea Constanța 2+ goals

28%

Unirea Constanța 3+ goals

9%

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

83%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

52%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)

29%

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.07 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more

22%

level

24%

Politehnica Iasi scores more

54%

Politehnica Iasi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff