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Unirea Constanța vs Minaur Baia Mare — Liga II 2018

Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Minaur Baia Mare
Minaur Baia Mare
10/15/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 10Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unirea Constanța29%
×Draw27%
Minaur Baia Mare43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Constanța
1.07
Minaur Baia Mare
1.36

Minaur Baia Mare creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Unirea Constanța
0.83
Minaur Baia Mare
0.31

allows per match

Unirea Constanța
2.42
Minaur Baia Mare
1.31

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par
Minaur Baia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Minaur Baia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw
57%
Unirea Constanța or Minaur Baia Mare
73%
Draw or Minaur Baia Mare
71%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
11%
Minaur Baia Mare wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
66%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
29%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
9%
Minaur Baia Mare 1+ goals
74%
Minaur Baia Mare 2+ goals
39%
Minaur Baia Mare 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
40%
Minaur Baia Mare (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Minaur Baia Mare away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Minaur Baia Mare defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Minaur Baia Mare attack 0.31 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more
29%
level
27%
Minaur Baia Mare scores more
43%

Minaur Baia Mare at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Minaur Baia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Constanța vs Minaur Baia Mare

Unirea Constanța beat Minaur Baia Mare 1-0 in Liga II on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.