Unirea Constanța 1–2 Csikszereda: Result & Stats

Unirea Constanța

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Csikszereda

11/12/2022

Liga II · Round 14Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța21%

×Draw23%

Csikszereda56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea ConstanțaExpected goals in this matchCsikszereda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.77

Unirea Constanța

0.99

Csikszereda

1.77

Csikszereda creates 79% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 81 away

0.83

creates per match

1.11

2.42

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Unirea Constanța

0.83

Csikszereda

1.11

allows per match

Unirea Constanța

2.42

Csikszereda

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Csikszereda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw

44%

Unirea Constanța or Csikszereda

77%

Draw or Csikszereda

79%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+

7%

Csikszereda wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals

63%

Unirea Constanța 2+ goals

26%

Unirea Constanța 3+ goals

8%

Csikszereda 1+ goals

83%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

53%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)

27%

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more

21%

level

23%

Csikszereda scores more

56%

Csikszereda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff