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Unirea Constanța vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga II 2018

Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
8/5/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Sparta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Unirea Constanța12%
×Draw19%
AFC Hermannstadt69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Constanța
0.70
AFC Hermannstadt
2.06

AFC Hermannstadt creates 194% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

Unirea Constanța
0.83
AFC Hermannstadt
1.71

allows per match

Unirea Constanța
2.42
AFC Hermannstadt
0.57

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw
31%
Unirea Constanța or AFC Hermannstadt
81%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
88%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
3%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
50%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
16%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
3%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
87%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
61%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
14%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.71 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more
12%
level
19%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
69%

AFC Hermannstadt at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Constanța vs AFC Hermannstadt

AFC Hermannstadt beat Unirea Constanța 2-0 in Liga II on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Sparta in Techirghiol.