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Unirea Constanța vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
8/27/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 4Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța26%
×Draw23%
ACS Sirineasa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Constanța
1.20
ACS Sirineasa
1.77

ACS Sirineasa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 84 away

creates per match

Unirea Constanța
0.83
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Unirea Constanța
2.42
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw
49%
Unirea Constanța or ACS Sirineasa
77%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
74%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
10%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
70%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
34%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
12%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
83%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
53%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
34%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more
26%
level
23%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
51%

ACS Sirineasa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Constanța vs ACS Sirineasa

Unirea Constanța beat ACS Sirineasa 2-1 in Liga II on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.