Unirea Alba Iulia W 2–0 Hermannstadt W

Unirea Alba Iulia W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hermannstadt W

11/9/2024

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 11Stadionul Micești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unirea Alba Iulia W77%

×Draw12%

Hermannstadt W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea Alba Iulia WExpected goals in this matchHermannstadt W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.71

1.39

Unirea Alba Iulia W

3.71

Hermannstadt W

1.39

Unirea Alba Iulia W creates 167% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

0.62

2.15

allows per match

5.85

creates per match

Unirea Alba Iulia W

1.58

Hermannstadt W

0.62

allows per match

Unirea Alba Iulia W

2.15

Hermannstadt W

5.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Alba Iulia W+0.00on par

Hermannstadt W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Alba Iulia W ↓

Hermannstadt W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Unirea Alba Iulia W or draw

89%

Unirea Alba Iulia W or Hermannstadt W

88%

Draw or Hermannstadt W

23%

Winning margin

Unirea Alba Iulia W wins by 2+

60%

Hermannstadt W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Unirea Alba Iulia W 1+ goals

97%

Unirea Alba Iulia W 2+ goals

87%

Unirea Alba Iulia W 3+ goals

69%

Hermannstadt W 1+ goals

75%

Hermannstadt W 2+ goals

40%

Hermannstadt W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Unirea Alba Iulia W (draw refunded)

88%

Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Alba Iulia W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Hermannstadt W away — creates 0.62, concedes 5.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Alba Iulia W attack 1.58 + Hermannstadt W defence 5.85 → ÷2 → 3.71

Hermannstadt W attack 0.62 + Unirea Alba Iulia W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Unirea Alba Iulia W scores more

77%

level

12%

Hermannstadt W scores more

11%

Unirea Alba Iulia W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Unirea Alba Iulia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff