UNIRB 1–0 Grapiuna Itabuna: Result & Stats

UNIRB

FT

1 – 0

Grapiuna Itabuna

6/18/2023

Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UNIRB64%

×Draw21%

Grapiuna Itabuna15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UNIRBExpected goals in this matchGrapiuna Itabuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.81

UNIRB

1.96

Grapiuna Itabuna

0.81

UNIRB creates 142% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.46

creates per match

0.85

0.77

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

UNIRB

2.46

Grapiuna Itabuna

0.85

allows per match

UNIRB

0.77

Grapiuna Itabuna

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par

Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw

85%

UNIRB or Grapiuna Itabuna

79%

Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna

36%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+

39%

Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals

86%

UNIRB 2+ goals

58%

UNIRB 3+ goals

31%

Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals

56%

Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals

19%

Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)

81%

Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.96

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

UNIRB scores more

64%

level

21%

Grapiuna Itabuna scores more

15%

UNIRB at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff