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UNIRB vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
12/6/2020Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UNIRB48%
×Draw24%
Colo Colo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
1.64
Colo Colo
1.18

UNIRB creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
73%
UNIRB or Colo Colo
76%
Draw or Colo Colo
52%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
25%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
81%
UNIRB 2+ goals
49%
UNIRB 3+ goals
23%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
69%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
33%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
64%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UNIRB scores more
48%
level
24%
Colo Colo scores more
27%

UNIRB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: UNIRB 0–0 Colo Colo

UNIRB and Colo Colo drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.