Unionistas II 0–1 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

Unionistas II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Palencia CF

3/8/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Las Pistas del Helmantico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unionistas II37%

×Draw30%

Palencia CF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas IIExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.05

Unionistas II

1.10

Palencia CF

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.18

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Unionistas II

1.00

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

Unionistas II

1.18

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas II+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas II ↓

Palencia CF →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Unionistas II or draw

66%

Unionistas II or Palencia CF

70%

Draw or Palencia CF

63%

Winning margin

Unionistas II wins by 2+

15%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Unionistas II 1+ goals

67%

Unionistas II 2+ goals

30%

Unionistas II 3+ goals

10%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

65%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

28%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unionistas II (draw refunded)

52%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unionistas II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas II attack 1.00 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Unionistas II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Unionistas II scores more

37%

level

30%

Palencia CF scores more

34%

Unionistas II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unionistas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas II vs Palencia CF

Palencia CF beat Unionistas II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Las Pistas del Helmantico in Salamanca.

Unionistas II vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unionistas II vs Palencia CF