Unionistas II 1–2 Guijuelo: Result & Stats

Unionistas II

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Guijuelo

4/4/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Las Pistas del Helmantico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unionistas II28%

×Draw28%

Guijuelo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas IIExpected goals in this matchGuijuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.30

Unionistas II

0.97

Guijuelo

1.30

Guijuelo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.00

creates per match

1.43

1.18

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Unionistas II

1.00

Guijuelo

1.43

allows per match

Unionistas II

1.18

Guijuelo

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas II+0.00on par

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas II ↓

Guijuelo →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Unionistas II or draw

56%

Unionistas II or Guijuelo

72%

Draw or Guijuelo

72%

Winning margin

Unionistas II wins by 2+

10%

Guijuelo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Unionistas II 1+ goals

62%

Unionistas II 2+ goals

25%

Unionistas II 3+ goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

73%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

37%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unionistas II (draw refunded)

39%

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unionistas II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas II attack 1.00 + Guijuelo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Unionistas II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unionistas II scores more

28%

level

28%

Guijuelo scores more

44%

Guijuelo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff